Throughout the NHL playoffs, I have forecasted each round simply by using shots on goal and goaltender save percentage to come u


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Throughout the NHL playoffs, I have forecasted each round simply by using shots on goal and goaltender save percentage to come u

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Throughout the NHL playoffs, I have forecasted each round simply by using shots on goal and goaltender save percentage to come up with a baseline for the series. Joakim Noah Jersey . Its not intended to be some magical formula and doesnt apply any context, like, for example, taking injuries into account. This remedial statistical method has gone 9-5 in picks through the first three rounds. Heres a quick look at the five series that went the wrong way: In the first round, Columbus came in ahead of Pittsburgh, though that required Sergei Bobrovsky to perform better than Marc-Andre Fleury (not an impossibility given Fleurys playoff track record), but Fleury and Bobrovsky each had a .908 save percentage in Round One and Pittsburgh dominated puck possession to an extent that they did not during the regular season. Minnesota upended Colorado, in Game Seven overtime, which wasnt altogether surprising. I would have easily been able to talk myself into the upset had the Wild not gone into the series with Ilya Bryzgalov as their starting goaltender, because the Wild were a superior possession team. Darcy Kuemper returned for four games and helped tilt the series back in Minnesotas favour and Semyon Varlamov, whose regular-season play fueled the Avalanches top seed finish, was only okay in the postseason, posting a .913 save percentage in seven games. The touchiest series for this years playoffs was the San Jose-Los Angeles matchup in Round One. The forecast had the Sharks favoured by the slimmest of margins (18.15 expected goals to 18.09 expected goals) and, when they had a 3-0 series lead, that coin flip looked to be falling the right way. We know how that has turned out since that point. In the second round, the Boston Bruins were favoured over the Montreal Canadiens, and while the Bruins controlled large portions of the series, they couldnt solve Carey Price, who had a .936 save percentage in the seven-game upset. Then, in the Conference Finals, the forecast put the Chicago Blackhawks over the Los Angeles Kings, due to a goaltending advantage, because Kings goaltender Jonathan Quick hasnt been great in this years playoffs. After what was a sensational series, it was safe to say that neither team held a goaltending advantage -- both Quick and Corey Crawford struggled -- and the Kings took Game Seven in OT. So, those misses are on the record as we head into the Stanley Cup Final. The expected goals for each team in the series are determined by taking each teams shots for and against over the course of the season, as well as through the first round of the playoffs, and splitting the difference. So, for example, the New York Rangers, over the regular season and playoffs have averaged 32.4 shots on goal per game and the Los Angeles Kings have allowed 27.0 shots on goal per game; the average of those two numbers, 29.70 shots, is the number that is then multiplied by (1 - the opposing goaltenders save percentage) to determine an expected goals per game for the Rangers. Finally, the number is multiplied by seven to indicate an expected goal total for a seven-game series. Theres no guarantee that scoring more goals in a series will result in winning four games first, but the odds certainly favour the team that scores more. So, lets see how the numbers shake out for the Final: Team SF SA Goaltender SV% Expected GF/Series Los Angeles 31.5 27.0 Jonathan Quick 0.912 16.54 N.Y. Rangers 32.4 29.1 Henrik Lundqvist 0.922 18.30 Verdict: While the Kings and Rangers are very similar in their playoff puck possession rates, the Kings were tops in the league during the regular season and ran through a more difficult gauntlet in the Western Conference to reach the Cup Final. The difference in shot rates during the regular season is pretty small, however, with the Kings earning 54.7% of the shots as the Rangers earned 53.0% of the total shots. Over the course of a game, that amounts to about one extra shot on goal; hardly the kind of difference that couldnt be overcome by better goaltending. Which brings us to the advantage to which the Rangers will cling. Lundqvist has been one of the games top goaltenders since coming into the league in 2005-2006, and is performing at a high level in this years playoffs as well, so couldnt he stop an extra shot or two per game? At the other end, Jonathan Quick has traditionally been a very good playoff goaltender in his own right, but his .906 save percentage this year has dropped Quicks all-time playoff save percentage to .922, falling fractionally behind Lundqvist. Certainly, some of the blame for this seasons save percentage can be attributed to the calibre of teams that the Kings have faced on their way to the Cup Final, with San Jose (sixth), Anaheim (first) and Chicago (second) all among the top-scoring teams in the league this season. By comparison, the Rangers got through Philadelphia (eighth), Pittsburgh (fifth) and Montreal (21st), so there is some quality of competition favouring Quick. It would be an upset if the Rangers won the series but a seven-game series, if otherwise close, can easily be decided by goaltending and, right now, its not unreasonable to hold higher expectations for Lundqvist. Lets see if King Henrik can get the job done. Scott Cullen can be reached at Scott.Cullen@bellmedia.ca and followed on Twitter at http://twitter.com/tsnscottcullen. For more, check out TSN Fantasy Sports on Facebook. Walt Frazier Knicks Jersey .Boston beat the Nashville Predators 5-3 on Tuesday night and celebrated consecutive wins for the first time in more than a month. Brandon Jennings Jersey . Under the deal, the Vikings will donate an undisclosed sum of money to five gay rights-related charities over the next five years. Kluwe said he wont receive any money as part of the settlement. "This will help a lot of people that really do need that help," Kluwe said. http://www.nbaknicksproshop.com/womens-anthony-mason-basketball-jersey/ . And like the near entirety of last season, Jonathan Bernier and Torontos goaltending tandem is up to the task. DALLAS -- Monta Ellis is turning into quite a consolation prize after Dallas missed out on Dwight Howard. Ellis had a season-high 37 points and two key assists late, Dirk Nowitzki led a fourth-quarter rally with 14 of his 35 points, and the Mavericks spoiled Howards best offensive night in Houston with a 123-120 victory over the Rockets on Wednesday night. The Mavericks settled for a pair of guards in Ellis and Jose Calderon after Howard chose the Rockets in free agency during the summer. Nowitzki wanted Howard as much as anyone else, but has raved about Ellis all season. "Were really just playing off of him," said Nowitzki, who also had a season high in scoring. "Hes been aggressive, hes been shooting the ball well, but whats been great is that he has been making plays for others. Hes making all of us better." Howard, playing in front of Dallas fans for the first time since his big decision, made his first 11 shots and scored a season-high 33 points to go with a game-high 11 rebounds after receiving some mild pregame boos. The Mavericks, who improved to 6-0 at home, trailed by 18 late in the third quarter but were down just one in the final minute when Ellis drove and zipped a pass to Shawn Marion in the corner for the go-ahead 3-pointer with 47 seconds left. Houstons James Harden had a chance to tie it with 9 seconds left but missed the second of two free throws, keeping Dallas lead at 121-120. Calderon made two free throws after a Houston foul, and Harden shot an airball on a 3-point try in the final seconds. The Rockets had 101 points after three quarters -- 50 of them in the paint -- but set the tone for the fourth by starting it with four straight 3-pointers, all misses. "In the fourth quarter, we went away from what we were doing the first three quarters," said Howard, who had four alley-oop dunks in the first half. "Weve just got to read how teams are playing us. Its growing pains. We have a very young team. Weve got to realize what we can do as a team." Howard, who was 12 of 16 from the field and even made nine of 13 free throws, hit one of two from the line for a 119-114 lead before Nowitzki hit a jumper, then blocked a shot by Howard on the other end. Ellis assisted on a dunk by Marion, and after Chandler Parsons missed a layup, Ellis found Marion for the go-ahead shot. Ellis finished with eight assists. "We stayed together as a team," Ellis said. "We got the defensive stops when we needed and came down andd made shots on the other end. Phil Jackson Knicks Jersey. " Nowitzki passed Reggie Miller for 15th on the NBA scoring list, with the 35-year-old in his 16th season going ahead of Miller on a free throw after a technical foul for defensive 3 seconds called against Howard. Nowitzki now has 25,298 points. Miller, the second-most prolific 3-point shooter behind Ray Allen, scored 25,279 points in 18 seasons with Indiana from 1987-2005. Brooklyns Kevin Garnett is 14th at 25,340 points after scoring four in a 95-91 loss to Charlotte on Wednesday night. "We never could get a handle on them," Rockets coach Kevin McHale said. "We just couldnt get them stopped the whole game. Dirk and Ellis got what they wanted." The Rockets led by 18 late in the third quarter before the Mavericks rallied in the fourth by shooting 74 per cent and outscoring Houston 36-19. After Dallas got to 104-101, Houston went back up by nine on consecutive 3-pointers from Patrick Beverley and Harden, who had 23 points on 6-of-14 shooting. The lead was still nine when Calderon and Nowitzki hit 3-pointers around a bucket by Harden, setting up the wild finish. "It would have been easy to drop our heads and stop playing, but these guys arent going to do that," Dallas coach Rick Carlisle said. Parsons had 21 points and a game-high 11 assists, but he attempted just two shots in the second half after scoring 18 and hitting three of four from 3-point range before halftime. "Its just annoying and frustrating to know we should have won the game," Parsons said. "We had a big lead and then we played completely different in one half than we did in the first half." Samuel Dalembert, the defensive-minded centre Dallas signed after Howard chose Houston, was powerless to stop him most of the night before finally getting a block on a layup try that was just Howards second miss. Dalembert led the Mavericks with 10 rebounds and four of their five blocks. A night after shooting 72 per cent in the first half of a blowout win over Boston, Houston was at 68 per cent at the break against Dallas and had 36 points in the paint -- 16 of those on dunks -- in taking a 68-61 lead. NOTES: Nowitzki got a technical foul in the first half for complaining about a foul on a drive by Harden, who missed the free throw. ... The Rockets shot 75 per cent in a 40-point first quarter. Harden, Parsons, Terrence Jones and Omar Casspi combined to go 5 of 6 from 3-point range as Houston took a 40-29 lead. Cheap NFL Jerseys Wholesale Jerseys Wholesale NFL Jerseys Jerseys From China Wholesale NFL Jerseys Cheap NFL Jerseys Cheap Jerseys ' ' '


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